Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Nolan McLean win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 65.5%
The tracked probability fell to 65.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 69% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $355 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 59%
The tracked probability rose to 59%, up 37.5 percentage points from 21.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability rises to 42.5%
The tracked probability rose to 42.5%, up 37.5 percentage points from 5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 7.05%
The tracked probability fell to 7.05%, down 7.2 percentage points from 14.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 53.5%
The tracked probability rose to 53.5%, up 12.0 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 79%
The tracked probability rose to 79%, up 8.0 percentage points from 71% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 23.05%
The tracked probability rose to 23.05%, up 20.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 199.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 45%
The tracked probability fell to 45%, down 4.0 percentage points from 49% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Yards
- Plunge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 23.25%
The tracked probability fell to 23.25%, down 23.3 percentage points from 46.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 39.5 percentage points from 42.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 46.5%
The tracked probability fell to 46.5%, down 38.0 percentage points from 84.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 70%
The tracked probability fell to 70%, down 5.0 percentage points from 75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Juwan Johnson 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on October 16? — probability falls to 78.55%
The tracked probability fell to 78.55%, down 5.3 percentage points from 83.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Chicago on October 16?
- Plunge
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by October 31? — probability falls to 18.35%
The tracked probability fell to 18.35%, down 19.2 percentage points from 37.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Taylor Swift monthly listeners hits __ by October 31?
- Plunge
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 60%
The tracked probability fell to 60%, down 34.5 percentage points from 94.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Apple (AAPL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 16? — probability falls to 51%
The tracked probability fell to 51%, down 42.5 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Helsinki on October 16?
- Plunge
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October? — probability falls to 71%
The tracked probability fell to 71%, down 6.0 percentage points from 77% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.9%
The tracked probability fell to 36.9%, down 10.1 percentage points from 47% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 14.5%
The tracked probability fell to 14.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 24% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.1%
The tracked probability fell to 35.1%, down 9.2 percentage points from 44.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Jared Goff finish as a top-12 QB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 67.5%
The tracked probability rose to 67.5%, up 22.0 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring QBs
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.1%
The tracked probability fell to 40.1%, down 7.9 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.9%
The tracked probability fell to 37.9%, down 9.0 percentage points from 46.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 52.5%
The tracked probability rose to 52.5%, up 10.5 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 12.75%
The tracked probability rose to 12.75%, up 9.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 36%
The tracked probability rose to 36%, up 16.5 percentage points from 19.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Surge
Next DeepSeek Flash released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 93%
The tracked probability rose to 93%, up 30.5 percentage points from 62.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next DeepSeek Flash released by...?
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 11.6 percentage points from 14.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.7%
The tracked probability fell to 39.7%, down 8.3 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 29.5%
The tracked probability fell to 29.5%, down 34.0 percentage points from 63.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 4%
The tracked probability fell to 4%, down 14.4 percentage points from 18.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 15.65%
The tracked probability rose to 15.65%, up 12.2 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 13.45%
The tracked probability rose to 13.45%, up 10.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.8%
The tracked probability fell to 39.8%, down 8.2 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 42.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 42.5%
The tracked probability rose to 42.5%, up 38.0 percentage points from 4.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 78%
The tracked probability rose to 78%, up 21.0 percentage points from 57% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
- Surge
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 4.0 percentage points from 46% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
- Plunge
Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above $750? — probability falls to 10%
The tracked probability fell to 10%, down 8.0 percentage points from 18% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Surge
Will Jonathan Taylor finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 21.5%
The tracked probability rose to 21.5%, up 6.5 percentage points from 15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring RBs
- Surge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 46.45%
The tracked probability rose to 46.45%, up 12.5 percentage points from 33.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Plunge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 57%
The tracked probability fell to 57%, down 11.0 percentage points from 68% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 64.5%
The tracked probability rose to 64.5%, up 6.5 percentage points from 58% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 31.5%
The tracked probability rose to 31.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.35%
The tracked probability rose to 16.35%, up 8.1 percentage points from 8.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 19.3%
The tracked probability rose to 19.3%, up 16.3 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Next DeepSeek Flash released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 62.5%
The tracked probability rose to 62.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 57.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next DeepSeek Flash released by...?
- Surge
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on October 19? — probability rises to 48.1%
The tracked probability rose to 48.1%, up 46.6 percentage points from 1.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?
- Plunge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6? — probability falls to 49%
The tracked probability fell to 49%, down 47.9 percentage points from 96.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 15, 2026?