This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift has a monthly listeners of greater than or equal to the specified figure according to Spotify at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Current leader
2.9%
3%
1 outcome
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by October 31?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 10.85%, down 10.9 percentage points from 21.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 22% → 11%
-10.9 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 10.85%, down 10.9 percentage points from 21.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 21.75% to 10.85% (-10.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T13:02:57.271Z to 2026-10-17T13:16:27.752Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 21.75% → 10.85%
Probability moved from 21.75% to 10.85% (-10.9 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 30 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 13:02:57 UTC to 2026-10-17 13:16:27 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 37.55% to 18.35% (-19.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T13:04:27.084Z to 2026-10-16T13:22:42.907Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 41.85% to 36.6% (-5.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T01:00:08.613Z to 2026-10-16T01:17:37.565Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 46.95% to 41.85% (-5.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T00:45:28.055Z to 2026-10-16T01:00:08.613Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 28.95% to 41.8% (+12.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-15T23:47:42.183Z to 2026-10-16T00:01:21.535Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 21.9% to 28.95% (+7.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-15T23:31:42.664Z to 2026-10-15T23:47:42.183Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 41.25% to 21.9% (-19.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-15T23:15:15.172Z to 2026-10-15T23:31:42.664Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 60.3% to 41.25% (-19.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-15T23:00:14.528Z to 2026-10-15T23:15:15.172Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift has a monthly listeners of greater than or equal to the specified figure according to Spotify at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The monthly listener count is listed on each artist's public Spotify profile. Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not count towards the specified artist's total. The resolution source for this market will be Spotify. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify.
Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by October 31? — probability falls to 10.85%
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SurgeTaylor Swift monthly listeners hits __ by October 31?
PlungeTaylor Swift monthly listeners hits __ by October 31?
PlungeTaylor Swift monthly listeners hits __ by October 31?
PlungeTaylor Swift monthly listeners hits __ by October 31?
SurgeTaylor Swift monthly listeners hits __ by October 31?
SurgeTaylor Swift monthly listeners hits __ by October 31?
PlungeTaylor Swift monthly listeners hits __ by October 31?
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