Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Ljungskile SK be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 47.75%
The tracked probability rose to 47.75%, up 45.3 percentage points from 2.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Surge
Will Helsingborgs IF be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 48.8%
The tracked probability rose to 48.8%, up 46.3 percentage points from 2.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability falls to 52.5%
The tracked probability fell to 52.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 58.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Surge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability rises to 37.75%
The tracked probability rose to 37.75%, up 12.3 percentage points from 25.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Titans vs. Colts
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50.35%
The tracked probability rose to 50.35%, up 47.2 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Shanghai Port be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 45.6%
The tracked probability rose to 45.6%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.4%
The tracked probability rose to 49.4%, up 46.4 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above $710? — probability falls to 10.1%
The tracked probability fell to 10.1%, down 10.7 percentage points from 20.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Plunge
Al Shahaniya vs. Al Arabi Doha SC: Al Arabi Doha SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 — probability falls to 90%
The tracked probability fell to 90%, down 9.5 percentage points from 99.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Al Shahaniya vs. Al Arabi Doha SC - More Markets
- Surge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.15%
The tracked probability rose to 46.15%, up 26.9 percentage points from 19.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will JW Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability rises to 31.5%
The tracked probability rose to 31.5%, up 9.0 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Surge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability rises to 58.5%
The tracked probability rose to 58.5%, up 9.5 percentage points from 49% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 63.5%
The tracked probability rose to 63.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 60.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
CD Leganés vs. Córdoba CF: 1st Half O/U 4.5 — probability rises to 26.5%
The tracked probability rose to 26.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CD Leganés vs. Córdoba CF - More Markets
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 23.95%
The tracked probability rose to 23.95%, up 20.4 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 24.5%
The tracked probability fell to 24.5%, down 6.2 percentage points from 30.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 71.95%
The tracked probability fell to 71.95%, down 4.2 percentage points from 76.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on October 19? — probability falls to 1.5%
The tracked probability fell to 1.5%, down 46.5 percentage points from 48.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?
- Surge
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 39.5 percentage points from 10% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026? — probability falls to 84.5%
The tracked probability fell to 84.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 91.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Best AI model on October 19?
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 69%
The tracked probability rose to 69%, up 5.0 percentage points from 64% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.6 on October 16, 2026? — probability falls to 89.35%
The tracked probability fell to 89.35%, down 5.1 percentage points from 94.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?
- Plunge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 3.5 percentage points from 44.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.55%
The tracked probability fell to 37.55%, down 6.6 percentage points from 44.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 22.65%
The tracked probability rose to 22.65%, up 19.6 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 19.15%
The tracked probability fell to 19.15%, down 5.2 percentage points from 24.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Matthew Golden have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 21.5%
The tracked probability fell to 21.5%, down 8.0 percentage points from 29.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Matthew Golden 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 8.55%
The tracked probability rose to 8.55%, up 7.0 percentage points from 1.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.95%
The tracked probability fell to 31.95%, down 8.0 percentage points from 39.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026? — probability rises to 85.5%
The tracked probability rose to 85.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 82.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Trump approval rating on October 16?
- Surge
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31? — probability rises to 54.5%
The tracked probability rose to 54.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.9 percentage points from 24.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $336 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 37%
The tracked probability rose to 37%, up 31.0 percentage points from 6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Apple (AAPL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.05%
The tracked probability rose to 25.05%, up 12.4 percentage points from 12.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 75%
The tracked probability rose to 75%, up 21.5 percentage points from 53.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.25%
The tracked probability fell to 34.25%, down 5.7 percentage points from 39.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will OXY play for Cloud9 in 2027? — probability rises to 54%
The tracked probability rose to 54%, up 7.5 percentage points from 46.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: VALORANT Offseason: OXY Next Team
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 46.3 percentage points from 49.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability rises to 37.85%
The tracked probability rose to 37.85%, up 12.4 percentage points from 25.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ravens vs. Browns
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 10.4 percentage points from 13.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.15%
The tracked probability fell to 39.15%, down 8.9 percentage points from 48.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability rises to 40.5%
The tracked probability rose to 40.5%, up 21.0 percentage points from 19.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 24%
The tracked probability fell to 24%, down 5.5 percentage points from 29.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 47.3%
The tracked probability rose to 47.3%, up 6.2 percentage points from 41.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: Eintracht Frankfurt O/U 5.5 — probability rises to 13%
The tracked probability rose to 13%, up 12.3 percentage points from 0.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.15%
The tracked probability fell to 38.15%, down 5.6 percentage points from 43.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 44.95%
The tracked probability rose to 44.95%, up 41.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.55%
The tracked probability rose to 49.55%, up 4.3 percentage points from 45.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 20.55%
The tracked probability rose to 20.55%, up 17.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Levante UD: Levante UD O/U 3.5 — probability rises to 37.55%
The tracked probability rose to 37.55%, up 35.1 percentage points from 2.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Levante UD - More Markets