This market will resolve according to Donald Trump's approval rating as reported by RealClearPolling at 5:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 99.5%, up 12.5 percentage points from 87% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 87% → 100%
+12.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 99.5%, up 12.5 percentage points from 87% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 87% to 99.5% (+12.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T21:02:01.886Z to 2026-10-16T21:16:52.839Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 87% → 99.5%
Probability moved from 87% to 99.5% (+12.5 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 51 seconds apart: 2026-10-16 21:02:01 UTC to 2026-10-16 21:16:52 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 85.5% to 89.5% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T20:32:26.478Z to 2026-10-16T20:47:51.055Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 93.5% to 85.5% (-8 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T20:16:33.249Z to 2026-10-16T20:32:26.478Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 83.5% to 93.5% (+10 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T20:00:58.117Z to 2026-10-16T20:16:33.249Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 82.5% to 85.5% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T18:45:08.219Z to 2026-10-16T19:03:02.404Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 72.5% to 78.5% (+6 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T16:47:59.704Z to 2026-10-16T17:02:24.125Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 60.5% to 67% (+6.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T04:32:27.791Z to 2026-10-16T04:47:02.104Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 52.5% to 62% (+9.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T00:01:21.535Z to 2026-10-16T00:16:08.882Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to Donald Trump's approval rating as reported by RealClearPolling at 5:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026. This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average,, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date.
Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources.
If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.).
Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026? — probability rises to 99.5%
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