Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 6.25%
The tracked probability fell to 6.25%, down 5.1 percentage points from 11.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 48.5%
The tracked probability fell to 48.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 52% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.6%
The tracked probability fell to 2.6%, down 20.7 percentage points from 23.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
2H Spread: Eagles (-17.5) — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 44.8 percentage points from 5.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Panthers vs. Eagles
- Plunge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.5 percentage points from 45.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
2H Spread: Eagles (-20.5) — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 45.3 percentage points from 4.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Panthers vs. Eagles
- Surge
Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings? — probability rises to 31.05%
The tracked probability rose to 31.05%, up 17.1 percentage points from 13.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings?
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.8 percentage points from 25.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 20.0 percentage points from 23% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.1 percentage points from 25.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December? — probability rises to 87.6%
The tracked probability rose to 87.6%, up 9.3 percentage points from 78.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.9 percentage points from 25.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026? — probability rises to 79.5%
The tracked probability rose to 79.5%, up 24.5 percentage points from 55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 60 million views on day 1? — probability rises to 57.35%
The tracked probability rose to 57.35%, up 17.5 percentage points from 39.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.45%
The tracked probability fell to 3.45%, down 41.7 percentage points from 45.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on October 19? — probability falls to 1.45%
The tracked probability fell to 1.45%, down 44.4 percentage points from 45.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18? — probability falls to 89%
The tracked probability fell to 89%, down 3.5 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 18?
- Surge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 44.25%
The tracked probability rose to 44.25%, up 39.6 percentage points from 4.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.9 percentage points from 25.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.9 percentage points from 25.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 33.5 percentage points from 16.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 13.45%
The tracked probability rose to 13.45%, up 10.0 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.55%
The tracked probability rose to 45.55%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.55%
The tracked probability fell to 2.55%, down 20.8 percentage points from 23.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Spread: Chargers (-17.5) — probability rises to 7.5%
The tracked probability rose to 7.5%, up 4.1 percentage points from 3.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Surge
Spread: Chargers (-16.5) — probability rises to 7.5%
The tracked probability rose to 7.5%, up 3.9 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 13.05%
The tracked probability rose to 13.05%, up 9.6 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 23.4 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 13.8%
The tracked probability rose to 13.8%, up 10.8 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.4%
The tracked probability rose to 45.4%, up 42.5 percentage points from 2.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
1Q Spread: Buccaneers (-10.5) — probability rises to 24.4%
The tracked probability rose to 24.4%, up 20.8 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Steelers vs. Buccaneers
- Surge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability rises to 23.85%
The tracked probability rose to 23.85%, up 21.8 percentage points from 2.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Cardinals vs. Rams
- Surge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.05%
The tracked probability rose to 47.05%, up 8.2 percentage points from 38.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.15%
The tracked probability fell to 3.15%, down 10.0 percentage points from 13.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.05%
The tracked probability fell to 26.05%, down 8.0 percentage points from 34% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.25%
The tracked probability fell to 3.25%, down 40.3 percentage points from 43.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability rises to 54.85%
The tracked probability rose to 54.85%, up 4.5 percentage points from 50.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 22.4 percentage points from 25.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 9.85%
The tracked probability fell to 9.85%, down 10.9 percentage points from 20.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Matthew Golden have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 24.5%
The tracked probability fell to 24.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 29% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Matthew Golden 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 29.05%
The tracked probability fell to 29.05%, down 8.0 percentage points from 37% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.3%
The tracked probability fell to 11.3%, down 9.0 percentage points from 20.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on October 19? — probability falls to 1.45%
The tracked probability fell to 1.45%, down 44.9 percentage points from 46.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?
- Surge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.55%
The tracked probability rose to 49.55%, up 25.3 percentage points from 24.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.1%
The tracked probability rose to 48.1%, up 19.1 percentage points from 28.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? — probability rises to 93%
The tracked probability rose to 93%, up 4.7 percentage points from 88.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Whalefall" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability falls to 50.85%
The tracked probability fell to 50.85%, down 3.6 percentage points from 54.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability rises to 64.5%
The tracked probability rose to 64.5%, up 10.0 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Surge
Will Perpl launch a token by December 31, 2027? — probability rises to 48%
The tracked probability rose to 48%, up 7.5 percentage points from 40.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Perpl launch a token by ___?
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 10.25%
The tracked probability rose to 10.25%, up 7.1 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)