Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability rises to 68.9%
The tracked probability rose to 68.9%, up 6.8 percentage points from 62.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Surge
Spread: Chargers (-17.5) — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 48.0 percentage points from 1.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.05%
The tracked probability fell to 18.05%, down 25.1 percentage points from 43.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 7.6%
The tracked probability fell to 7.6%, down 15.1 percentage points from 22.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.75%
The tracked probability fell to 11.75%, down 14.9 percentage points from 26.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? — probability falls to 53.45%
The tracked probability fell to 53.45%, down 6.0 percentage points from 59.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 10.05%
The tracked probability fell to 10.05%, down 11.5 percentage points from 21.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 63.05%
The tracked probability rose to 63.05%, up 3.9 percentage points from 59.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 25.9%
The tracked probability rose to 25.9%, up 22.7 percentage points from 3.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 45.8%
The tracked probability fell to 45.8%, down 3.8 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 44.5%
The tracked probability rose to 44.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 37.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Juwan Johnson 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on October 18? — probability falls to 72.5%
The tracked probability fell to 72.5%, down 22.5 percentage points from 95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Warsaw on October 18?
- Surge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.1%
The tracked probability rose to 49.1%, up 3.2 percentage points from 45.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 22.75%
The tracked probability fell to 22.75%, down 22.8 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 12.55%
The tracked probability rose to 12.55%, up 9.5 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.5%
The tracked probability rose to 24.5%, up 12.3 percentage points from 12.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 12.55%
The tracked probability rose to 12.55%, up 9.5 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.35%
The tracked probability rose to 33.35%, up 30.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.65%
The tracked probability fell to 12.65%, down 4.7 percentage points from 17.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability falls to 21%
The tracked probability fell to 21%, down 28.0 percentage points from 49% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Plunge
Will the NBA announce an expansion team in Las Vegas by October 23, 2026? — probability falls to 11%
The tracked probability fell to 11%, down 6.0 percentage points from 17% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA to announce expansion team in Las Vegas by...?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on October 18? — probability falls to 53%
The tracked probability fell to 53%, down 40.5 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Toronto on October 18?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 18? — probability falls to 89.7%
The tracked probability fell to 89.7%, down 5.6 percentage points from 95.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 18?
- Surge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 23.3%
The tracked probability rose to 23.3%, up 20.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.35%
The tracked probability rose to 17.35%, up 13.8 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability rises to 5.75%
The tracked probability rose to 5.75%, up 3.4 percentage points from 2.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 10.2%
The tracked probability fell to 10.2%, down 6.9 percentage points from 17.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 20.75%
The tracked probability rose to 20.75%, up 3.2 percentage points from 17.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 27.1%
The tracked probability rose to 27.1%, up 22.1 percentage points from 5.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability rises to 6.4%
The tracked probability rose to 6.4%, up 3.3 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Istanbul be 8°C on October 18? — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 25.0 percentage points from 75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Istanbul on October 18?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? — probability rises to 71.4%
The tracked probability rose to 71.4%, up 7.8 percentage points from 63.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 22.95%
The tracked probability rose to 22.95%, up 8.0 percentage points from 14.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on October 18? — probability rises to 97.55%
The tracked probability rose to 97.55%, up 3.1 percentage points from 94.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 18?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 18? — probability rises to 94%
The tracked probability rose to 94%, up 33.6 percentage points from 60.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Warsaw on October 18?
- Plunge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 24.65%
The tracked probability fell to 24.65%, down 17.8 percentage points from 42.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 12.55%
The tracked probability rose to 12.55%, up 9.0 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 45.6%
The tracked probability rose to 45.6%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability falls to 40.95%
The tracked probability fell to 40.95%, down 8.5 percentage points from 49.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.4%
The tracked probability rose to 17.4%, up 14.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 13.35%
The tracked probability fell to 13.35%, down 36.5 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.4%
The tracked probability rose to 45.4%, up 42.5 percentage points from 2.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.1%
The tracked probability rose to 17.1%, up 13.6 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 17.7%
The tracked probability fell to 17.7%, down 16.7 percentage points from 34.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 32.0 percentage points from 17% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Surge
Will Kevin Acton win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? — probability rises to 78.5%
The tracked probability rose to 78.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 74% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.35%
The tracked probability rose to 17.35%, up 14.3 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the NBA announce an expansion team in Las Vegas by October 23, 2026? — probability rises to 17%
The tracked probability rose to 17%, up 7.0 percentage points from 10% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA to announce expansion team in Las Vegas by...?
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.8%
The tracked probability rose to 48.8%, up 5.6 percentage points from 43.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.65%
The tracked probability rose to 48.65%, up 3.3 percentage points from 45.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader