This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Oct '26.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on October 18?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 3.5 percentage points from 96.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 96% → 100%
+3.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 3.5 percentage points from 96.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 96.45% to 99.95% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T23:01:39.038Z to 2026-10-18T23:17:19.620Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 96.45% → 99.95%
Probability moved from 96.45% to 99.95% (+3.5 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 41 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 23:01:39 UTC to 2026-10-18 23:17:19 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 52.45% to 96.45% (+44 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T22:47:47.662Z to 2026-10-18T23:01:39.038Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 72.5% to 50.05% (-22.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T21:45:55.501Z to 2026-10-18T22:01:04.360Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 95% to 72.5% (-22.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T21:32:26.890Z to 2026-10-18T21:45:55.501Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 52.5% to 95% (+42.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T21:02:11.064Z to 2026-10-18T21:17:54.455Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 67% to 52.5% (-14.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T20:45:05.129Z to 2026-10-18T21:02:11.064Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 93.5% to 67% (-26.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T20:01:32.936Z to 2026-10-18T20:31:57.845Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Oct '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.
If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Living timeline · 7 significant updates
Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on October 18? — probability rises to 99.95%
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