Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Davante Adams have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 10%
The tracked probability fell to 10%, down 5.5 percentage points from 15.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 1,000+ Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability rises to 26.5%
The tracked probability rose to 26.5%, up 12.0 percentage points from 14.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Surge
Exact Score: Deportivo Pereira 2 - 0 Boyacá Chicó FC? — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 18.9 percentage points from 81% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Deportivo Pereira vs. Boyacá Chicó FC - Exact Score
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.4%
The tracked probability fell to 12.4%, down 37.5 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 24.55%
The tracked probability fell to 24.55%, down 25.2 percentage points from 49.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 25.55%
The tracked probability fell to 25.55%, down 24.6 percentage points from 50.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 24.55%
The tracked probability fell to 24.55%, down 24.9 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 22.1%
The tracked probability fell to 22.1%, down 22.9 percentage points from 45.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 24%
The tracked probability rose to 24%, up 11.5 percentage points from 12.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 18.9%
The tracked probability fell to 18.9%, down 18.6 percentage points from 37.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 11.15%
The tracked probability fell to 11.15%, down 34.0 percentage points from 45.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21? — probability rises to 32.95%
The tracked probability rose to 32.95%, up 8.3 percentage points from 24.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 21?
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 in October? — probability falls to 25.5%
The tracked probability fell to 25.5%, down 16.0 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.35%
The tracked probability fell to 12.35%, down 37.2 percentage points from 49.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Next [link omitted] GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 59%
The tracked probability rose to 59%, up 29.5 percentage points from 29.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
- Surge
Will Jordan Love have 3,799.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 60%
The tracked probability rose to 60%, up 9.5 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jordan Love 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 11.95%
The tracked probability fell to 11.95%, down 11.2 percentage points from 23.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.7%
The tracked probability rose to 49.7%, up 25.1 percentage points from 24.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31? — probability falls to 79%
The tracked probability fell to 79%, down 9.5 percentage points from 88.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31
- Plunge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 12.8%
The tracked probability fell to 12.8%, down 11.0 percentage points from 23.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 55%
The tracked probability fell to 55%, down 4.0 percentage points from 59% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 67.5%
The tracked probability fell to 67.5%, down 11.5 percentage points from 79% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 45.1%
The tracked probability rose to 45.1%, up 22.9 percentage points from 22.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 9%
The tracked probability fell to 9%, down 4.3 percentage points from 13.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 77%
The tracked probability fell to 77%, down 12.5 percentage points from 89.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 56.5%
The tracked probability rose to 56.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 51.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 53%
The tracked probability fell to 53%, down 9.0 percentage points from 62% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.1%
The tracked probability rose to 24.1%, up 11.9 percentage points from 12.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 23.1%
The tracked probability rose to 23.1%, up 11.2 percentage points from 11.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability falls to 48%
The tracked probability fell to 48%, down 7.0 percentage points from 55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 23%
The tracked probability rose to 23%, up 11.5 percentage points from 11.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 63.9%
The tracked probability fell to 63.9%, down 8.3 percentage points from 72.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Plunge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability falls to 50.55%
The tracked probability fell to 50.55%, down 31.0 percentage points from 81.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Auston Matthews record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability falls to 52%
The tracked probability fell to 52%, down 8.0 percentage points from 60% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Surge
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Brussels, Belgium Singles? — probability rises to 22%
The tracked probability rose to 22%, up 17.5 percentage points from 4.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: ATP Tennis: Brussels, Belgium Singles Winner
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 73.6%
The tracked probability fell to 73.6%, down 8.3 percentage points from 81.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability falls to 49.2%
The tracked probability fell to 49.2%, down 7.2 percentage points from 56.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 63.35%
The tracked probability rose to 63.35%, up 4.2 percentage points from 59.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 66%
The tracked probability rose to 66%, up 13.0 percentage points from 53% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability rises to 53.5%
The tracked probability rose to 53.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 70.6%
The tracked probability fell to 70.6%, down 23.3 percentage points from 93.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December? — probability rises to 93.4%
The tracked probability rose to 93.4%, up 5.8 percentage points from 87.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability falls to 14.5%
The tracked probability fell to 14.5%, down 11.0 percentage points from 25.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Plunge
Will Terry McLaurin have 549.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 7.55%
The tracked probability fell to 7.55%, down 16.4 percentage points from 23.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Terry McLaurin 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability falls to 12%
The tracked probability fell to 12%, down 6.0 percentage points from 18% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 45.1%
The tracked probability rose to 45.1%, up 22.4 percentage points from 22.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on October 20? — probability falls to 51.5%
The tracked probability fell to 51.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 56.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Miami on October 20?
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 81.55%
The tracked probability rose to 81.55%, up 5.0 percentage points from 76.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 25.25%
The tracked probability rose to 25.25%, up 13.6 percentage points from 11.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 11.9%
The tracked probability fell to 11.9%, down 11.2 percentage points from 23.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)