Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 21.4%
The tracked probability fell to 21.4%, down 9.3 percentage points from 30.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Michal Sadílek record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? — probability rises to 7.85%
The tracked probability rose to 7.85%, up 4.9 percentage points from 2.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Most Assists 2026-27
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.9%
The tracked probability fell to 31.9%, down 8.7 percentage points from 40.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.15%
The tracked probability fell to 31.15%, down 8.9 percentage points from 40% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 11%
The tracked probability fell to 11%, down 19.7 percentage points from 30.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 24.35%
The tracked probability fell to 24.35%, down 8.6 percentage points from 32.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 16.45%
The tracked probability fell to 16.45%, down 16.5 percentage points from 32.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.25%
The tracked probability fell to 33.25%, down 8.6 percentage points from 41.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 76.75%
The tracked probability rose to 76.75%, up 16.4 percentage points from 60.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will Justin Jefferson finish as a top-12 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 87.5%
The tracked probability rose to 87.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 80.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 24.65%
The tracked probability fell to 24.65%, down 8.5 percentage points from 33.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31? — probability rises to 60%
The tracked probability rose to 60%, up 5.5 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31
- Surge
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — probability rises to 34.95%
The tracked probability rose to 34.95%, up 7.8 percentage points from 27.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 21.25%
The tracked probability fell to 21.25%, down 7.5 percentage points from 28.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will something leave Paper Rex in 2026? — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 24.5 percentage points from 24.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Players Will Leave Their Team in 2026?
- Plunge
Will Davante Adams have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 38.5%
The tracked probability fell to 38.5%, down 27.5 percentage points from 66% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 1,000+ Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 3.7%
The tracked probability fell to 3.7%, down 7.6 percentage points from 11.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 1.65%
The tracked probability fell to 1.65%, down 8.3 percentage points from 9.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC: Tottenham Hotspur FC O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 17.9 percentage points from 18% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC - More Markets
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on October 19? — probability rises to 97.95%
The tracked probability rose to 97.95%, up 44.0 percentage points from 54% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 19?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.75%
The tracked probability fell to 28.75%, down 6.8 percentage points from 35.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Getafe CF O/U 3.5 — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 33.5 percentage points from 16.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.3%
The tracked probability fell to 11.3%, down 7.6 percentage points from 18.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Michal Sadílek record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? — probability falls to 2.95%
The tracked probability fell to 2.95%, down 10.2 percentage points from 13.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Most Assists 2026-27
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 32.95%
The tracked probability rose to 32.95%, up 17.0 percentage points from 15.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 10.05%
The tracked probability fell to 10.05%, down 18.5 percentage points from 28.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.25%
The tracked probability fell to 17.25%, down 6.5 percentage points from 23.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Kevin Acton win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? — probability rises to 74.5%
The tracked probability rose to 74.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 71.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.9%
The tracked probability rose to 24.9%, up 12.6 percentage points from 12.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the NBA announce an expansion team in Las Vegas by October 23, 2026? — probability falls to 0.9%
The tracked probability fell to 0.9%, down 4.6 percentage points from 5.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA to announce expansion team in Las Vegas by...?
- Plunge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability falls to 33.9%
The tracked probability fell to 33.9%, down 15.4 percentage points from 49.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.35%
The tracked probability fell to 35.35%, down 6.6 percentage points from 41.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 70.95%
The tracked probability rose to 70.95%, up 9.7 percentage points from 61.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 9.95%
The tracked probability fell to 9.95%, down 6.3 percentage points from 16.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 82.25%
The tracked probability rose to 82.25%, up 5.0 percentage points from 77.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 47.2 percentage points from 50.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 37%
The tracked probability rose to 37%, up 11.5 percentage points from 25.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.7%
The tracked probability fell to 30.7%, down 6.5 percentage points from 37.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — probability falls to 27.1%
The tracked probability fell to 27.1%, down 35.3 percentage points from 62.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40%
The tracked probability fell to 40%, down 6.7 percentage points from 46.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Lionel Messi win the 2027 MLS Golden Boot? — probability falls to 46%
The tracked probability fell to 46%, down 4.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Lionel Messi win the 2027 MLS Golden Boot?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.85%
The tracked probability fell to 41.85%, down 6.1 percentage points from 47.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.6%
The tracked probability fell to 44.6%, down 5.1 percentage points from 49.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability rises to 46.5%
The tracked probability rose to 46.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 43% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.65%
The tracked probability fell to 40.65%, down 6.7 percentage points from 47.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC: Tottenham Hotspur FC O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 18%
The tracked probability fell to 18%, down 8.5 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.95%
The tracked probability fell to 32.95%, down 6.6 percentage points from 39.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.15%
The tracked probability fell to 33.15%, down 6.8 percentage points from 39.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 78.4%
The tracked probability fell to 78.4%, down 14.6 percentage points from 93.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners