Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.1%
The tracked probability fell to 18.1%, down 6.9 percentage points from 25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 6.35%
The tracked probability fell to 6.35%, down 24.1 percentage points from 30.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.4 percentage points from 49.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability falls to 17.15%
The tracked probability fell to 17.15%, down 3.1 percentage points from 20.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8.7%
The tracked probability fell to 8.7%, down 7.6 percentage points from 16.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability rises to 78.25%
The tracked probability rose to 78.25%, up 5.1 percentage points from 73.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Surge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 15.6 percentage points from 33.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability falls to 42.5%
The tracked probability fell to 42.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? — probability falls to 46.9%
The tracked probability fell to 46.9%, down 6.9 percentage points from 53.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 62.5%
The tracked probability rose to 62.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.45%
The tracked probability fell to 3.45%, down 19.7 percentage points from 23.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.35%
The tracked probability fell to 12.35%, down 12.3 percentage points from 24.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nolan McLean win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 32.5%
The tracked probability rose to 32.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 28.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 46.0 percentage points from 49.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.35%
The tracked probability rose to 49.35%, up 46.4 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Slavia Praha: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 1.15%
The tracked probability fell to 1.15%, down 21.1 percentage points from 22.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Slavia Praha - More Markets
- Plunge
Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Getafe CF O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 6.6%
The tracked probability fell to 6.6%, down 16.4 percentage points from 22.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid - More Markets
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 17.5%
The tracked probability rose to 17.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 13% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 47.3 percentage points from 50.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 46.7 percentage points from 50.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 2.25%
The tracked probability fell to 2.25%, down 7.8 percentage points from 10.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 24.2 percentage points from 27.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Spread: CA San Telmo (-2.5) — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 42.1 percentage points from 7.45% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.15%
The tracked probability fell to 36.15%, down 7.6 percentage points from 43.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability rises to 44%
The tracked probability rose to 44%, up 3.0 percentage points from 41% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Spread: CA San Telmo (-3.5) — probability rises to 49.25%
The tracked probability rose to 49.25%, up 41.0 percentage points from 8.2% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.15%
The tracked probability fell to 34.15%, down 7.8 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 42.0 percentage points from 45.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 69.2%
The tracked probability rose to 69.2%, up 20.4 percentage points from 48.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.7%
The tracked probability fell to 3.7%, down 46.3 percentage points from 50.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 19, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0? — probability rises to 84.5%
The tracked probability rose to 84.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 81.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 19, 2026?
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 23.35%
The tracked probability rose to 23.35%, up 19.8 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.7 percentage points from 24.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Michal Sadílek record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? — probability falls to 2.35%
The tracked probability fell to 2.35%, down 13.1 percentage points from 15.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Most Assists 2026-27
- Surge
Beitar Jerusalem FC vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv FC: Beitar Jerusalem FC O/U 4.5 — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 3.1 percentage points from 46.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Beitar Jerusalem FC vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.75%
The tracked probability fell to 32.75%, down 5.0 percentage points from 37.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? — probability falls to 88.05%
The tracked probability fell to 88.05%, down 4.0 percentage points from 92.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Whalefall" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.85%
The tracked probability fell to 32.85%, down 5.9 percentage points from 38.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38%
The tracked probability fell to 38%, down 5.4 percentage points from 43.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.65%
The tracked probability fell to 17.65%, down 5.8 percentage points from 23.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Next [link omitted] GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 64.5%
The tracked probability rose to 64.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 56.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
- Plunge
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 1.8%
The tracked probability fell to 1.8%, down 20.6 percentage points from 22.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability falls to 13%
The tracked probability fell to 13%, down 14.0 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Surge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.35%
The tracked probability rose to 48.35%, up 12.1 percentage points from 36.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 29.45%
The tracked probability fell to 29.45%, down 5.8 percentage points from 35.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 93.5%+? — probability rises to 12.55%
The tracked probability rose to 12.55%, up 11.2 percentage points from 1.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR)?
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 23.3 percentage points from 26.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader