The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
Leading outcome
78.8%
79%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 79.6%, down 9.4 percentage points from 89% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 89% → 80%
-9.4 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 89% to 79.6% (-9.4 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T08:47:20.655Z to 2026-11-04T09:02:50.039Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 89% → 79.6%
Probability moved from 89% to 79.6% (-9.4 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 29 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 08:47:20 UTC to 2026-11-04 09:02:50 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 82.6% to 89.35% (+6.75 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T07:47:04.295Z to 2026-11-04T08:04:43.000Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 60.85% to 81.75% (+20.9 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T07:15:56.087Z to 2026-11-04T07:32:40.922Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 97.3% to 60.85% (-36.45 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T07:00:41.380Z to 2026-11-04T07:15:56.087Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 44.45% to 97.4% (+52.95 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T06:01:02.519Z to 2026-11-04T06:24:54.072Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 73.4% to 46.9% (-26.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T05:34:11.442Z to 2026-11-04T05:47:34.686Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.