Negative GDP growth in 2026?
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S.
- Current leader
- No 88%
- Leader 24h
- +0%
- 24h volume
- 1.1
- Liquidity
- 2.8K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
88%
+0% 24h
Yes
12%
-0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. The GDP release will be available at:. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 93%.
Story so far
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Latest update
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline