UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
- Current leader
- below 0% 46%
- Largest 24h move
- between 2% and 3% +26%
- 24h volume
- 0
- Liquidity
- 668.5
Top candidates
7 outcomes
below 0%
46%
-1% 24h
between 1% and 2%
41%
-3% 24h
between 2% and 3%
41%
+26% 24h
between 0% and 1%
38%
-1% 24h
between 4% and 5%
38%
-1% 24h
Show all outcomes
5% or higher
10%
+0%
between 3% and 4%
6%
+0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
Read the complete resolution rules
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year.
If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market.
Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest below 0% probability of 12%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1% moved lower from 48.5% to 38.0% (-10.5 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:50.195Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:50.195Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%" outcome in "UK Annual GDP Growth 2026" made a sharp move from 48.5% to 38.0% between 2026-06-23T18:45:50.195Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:50.195Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -10.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.