Fed rate hike in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
- Current leader
- Yes 56%
- Leader 24h
- -20%
- 24h volume
- 114.3K
- Liquidity
- 164.6K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
Yes
56%
-20% 24h
No
45%
+20% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Yes probability of 51%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline