activeEconomy+9% 24h

Fed rate hike in 2026?

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Current leader
Yes 56%
Leader 24h
+9%
24h volume
622.1K
Liquidity
417.2K

Top outcomes

2 outcomes

Yes

56%

+9% 24h

No

44%

-9% 24h

Odds chart

Probability over time

Story so far

Needs a refresh

The 2026 Fed rate-hike market has drifted lower since the Fed held rates steady on July 29, 2026. By August 8, Yes had fallen to 54.5% after a sustained slide from the high-60s, with recent moves aligning with weaker July labor data and related coverage.

No major update has changed the story in 21 days.

Latest update

No updates yet

The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • The Fed kept rates unchanged on July 29, 2026.
  • Three officials reportedly dissented in favor of a hike.
  • Weak July jobs data and softer labor reporting appear to have reduced hike expectations.
  • Yes drifted 13.0 points lower across multiple snapshots into August 8, 2026.

Unresolved questions

  • Whether the Yes decline continues after August 8, 2026.
  • Whether later Fed commentary or new data changes market interpretation.
  • How much of the move is tied to the July 29 decision, the reported dissent, or later labor data.

People and institutions to watch

Federal ReserveYes outcome for a 2026 rate hikeFed officials who dissentedCLOB market price historyJuly jobs dataLabor market reporting

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

No timeline entries match the current filters.

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