How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.
- Current leader
- 4.8% before 2027 30%
- Largest 24h move
- 4.8% before 2027 +5%
- 24h volume
- 295.3
- Liquidity
- 30.2K
Top candidates
6 outcomes
4.8% before 2027
30%
+5% 24h
5.0% before 2027
14%
+1% 24h
5.2% before 2027
6%
+0% 24h
5.7% before 2027
4%
-0% 24h
6.0% before 2027
3%
0% 24h
Show all outcomes
5.5% before 2027
3%
-0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see:.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest 4.8% before 2027 probability of 26%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline