How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal…
- Current leader
- 5.0% in 2026 11%
- Largest 24h move
- 6.0% in 2026 -5%
- 24h volume
- 2.4K
- Liquidity
- 16.6K
Top candidates
5 outcomes
5.0% in 2026
11%
+1% 24h
5.5% in 2026
7%
+0% 24h
6.0% in 2026
7%
-5% 24h
7.0% in 2026
6%
+0% 24h
10.0% in 2026
2%
-0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest 5.0% in 2026 probability of 14%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline