U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
- Current leader
- between 4.0% and 4.4% 42%
- Largest 24h move
- at least 4.5% -10%
- 24h volume
- 30.3
- Liquidity
- 6.2K
Top candidates
8 outcomes
between 4.0% and 4.4%
42%
-7% 24h
at least 4.5%
31%
-10% 24h
between 2.5% and 2.9%
14%
-0% 24h
between 3.5% and 3.9%
11%
+0% 24h
between 1.0% and 1.4%
5%
-0% 24h
Show all outcomes
between 2.0% and 2.4%
4%
-0%
between 1.5% and 1.9%
4%
-0%
less than 1.0%
1%
-0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Read the complete resolution rules
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (.
The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
For the full release schedule, see:
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest between 4.0% and 4.4% probability of 42%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline