GDP growth in 2026
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
- Current leader
- greater than 2.5% 52%
- Largest 24h move
- less than 0.5% +25%
- 24h volume
- 153.4
- Liquidity
- 6.4K
Top candidates
6 outcomes
greater than 2.5%
52%
-1% 24h
between 1.5% and 2.0%
13%
-14% 24h
less than 0.5%
12%
+25% 24h
between 1.0% and 1.5%
12%
-2% 24h
between 2.0% and 2.5%
9%
-1% 24h
Show all outcomes
between 0.5% and 1.0%
6%
-2%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest greater than 2.5% probability of 27%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline