South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
- Current leader
- between 3.8% and 4.1% in 2026 37%
- Largest 24h move
- between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026 -18%
- 24h volume
- 9.6
- Liquidity
- 897.2
Top candidates
10 outcomes
between 3.8% and 4.1% in 2026
37%
+7% 24h
between 2.9% and 3.2% in 2026
37%
-16% 24h
between 4.1% and 4.4% in 2026
37%
+2% 24h
between 2.6% and 2.9% in 2026
28%
-16% 24h
less than 2.6% in 2026
27%
-0% 24h
Show all outcomes
greater than 5.0% in 2026
23%
+2%
between 3.5% and 3.8% in 2026
19%
-15%
between 4.4% and 4.7% in 2026
12%
-0%
between 3.2% and 3.5% in 2026
10%
+1%
between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026
4%
-18%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Read the complete resolution rules
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (, selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)".
The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%).
Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see:
Living timeline · 4 significant updates
South Africa 2.6%-2.9% inflation range drops 11.1 points over 24 hours
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest between 3.8% and 4.1% in 2026 probability of 14%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshThe South African 2026 inflation range markets have shown notable movement over June 23-24, 2026. The 3.8%-4.1% range had risen over 24 hours, while the 3.5%-3.8% range then dropped from 28.0% to 18.6% over the same period. No confirmed driver has been established.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
South Africa 2.6%-2.9% inflation range drops 11.1 points over 24 hours
The 2026 South Africa inflation range market for 2.6%-2.9% fell from 39.35% to 28.25% between June 23 and June 24. No confirmed driver is established from the supplied context.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- Polymarket-reported 24h price changes moved the relevant South African inflation range probabilities.
- A cited headline mentions inflation reached 4.5%, but its relationship to the market move is not confirmed.
Unresolved questions
- Whether the 3.5%-3.8% plunge reflects new inflation data, broader macro expectations, or positioning is not confirmed.
- Whether the earlier rise in the 3.8%-4.1% range and the later drop in the 3.5%-3.8% range share a common driver is unclear.
- Whether the cited inflation headline is actually driving the move remains unconfirmed.
People and institutions to watch
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
Polymarket-reported pricing shows the Yes side for South African inflation landing between 2.6% and 2.9% in 2026 moved down 11.1 percentage points, from 39.35% to 28.25%, over the 24-hour window ending June 24, 2026. The broader event remains dispersed across nearby inflation ranges, with 3.8%-4.1% and 2.9%-3.2% listed slightly above this contract in the supplied snapshot. A matched headline says South Africa producer inflation hit 7.8% in May on petroleum prices, but that source is contextual only and does not confirm why this specific 2026 CPI range moved. The move may reflect repositioning around South African inflation expectations, but causality is not established by the provided sources.
What changed
The 2.6%-2.9% Yes probability fell from 0.3935 to 0.2825, a -0.111 move, during the supplied 24-hour window.
What to watch next
Watch for confirmed South African CPI and producer-price releases, central-bank commentary, and whether volume deepens across adjacent 2026 inflation ranges.
Sources
- South Africa producer inflation hits 7.8% on petroleum price surge in May - Nairametricssearchrelevance 75%· Google News RSS
South Africa producer inflation hits 7.8% on petroleum price surge in May Nairametrics