China Annual Inflation 2026
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
- Current leader
- between 1.1% and 1.5% 47%
- Largest 24h move
- between 0.6% and 1.0% +3%
- 24h volume
- 17
- Liquidity
- 11.3K
Top candidates
9 outcomes
between 1.1% and 1.5%
47%
-1% 24h
between 0.6% and 1.0%
30%
+3% 24h
less than -1.0%
6%
+0% 24h
between 0.1% and 0.5%
5%
0% 24h
between -0.9% and -0.5%
5%
+0% 24h
Show all outcomes
between 1.6% and 2.0%
3%
-0%
between 2.0% and 2.4%
3%
-0%
at least 2.5%
2%
-1%
between -0.4% and 0.0%
2%
-0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (, currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Read the complete resolution rules
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see:, locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see:
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest between 1.1% and 1.5% probability of 41%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5% moved lower from 55.0% to 47.0% (-8.0 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:48.933Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%" outcome in "China Annual Inflation 2026" made a sharp move from 55.0% to 47.0% between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:48.933Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -8.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.