Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 21.4%
The tracked probability fell to 21.4%, down 4.3 percentage points from 25.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.05%
The tracked probability fell to 39.05%, down 5.1 percentage points from 44.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 24.95%
The tracked probability rose to 24.95%, up 12.3 percentage points from 12.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 21.9%
The tracked probability fell to 21.9%, down 5.6 percentage points from 27.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 12.4 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 13.1%
The tracked probability rose to 13.1%, up 3.0 percentage points from 10.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 13.3 percentage points from 16.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 13.0 percentage points from 16.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 31.9 percentage points from 35.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 13.2 percentage points from 16.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 13.2 percentage points from 16.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 19%
The tracked probability rose to 19%, up 6.9 percentage points from 12.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 59.6%
The tracked probability fell to 59.6%, down 11.1 percentage points from 70.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 26.7 percentage points from 23.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.8%
The tracked probability rose to 25.8%, up 21.7 percentage points from 4.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.15%
The tracked probability rose to 17.15%, up 13.6 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 44.6%
The tracked probability rose to 44.6%, up 40.4 percentage points from 4.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.15%
The tracked probability fell to 41.15%, down 4.1 percentage points from 45.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 9.0 percentage points from 12.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.65%
The tracked probability rose to 48.65%, up 5.6 percentage points from 43.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.45%
The tracked probability rose to 45.45%, up 38.9 percentage points from 6.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 10.5 percentage points from 14.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.1%
The tracked probability rose to 45.1%, up 5.6 percentage points from 39.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.7%
The tracked probability rose to 17.7%, up 14.1 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 29.95%
The tracked probability fell to 29.95%, down 17.6 percentage points from 47.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 87.3%
The tracked probability fell to 87.3%, down 6.2 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 13.2 percentage points from 16.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability rises to 46%
The tracked probability rose to 46%, up 5.5 percentage points from 40.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 13.5 percentage points from 17.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 9.0 percentage points from 12.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on October 17? — probability rises to 81%
The tracked probability rose to 81%, up 8.0 percentage points from 73% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Madrid on October 17?
- Plunge
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on October 19? — probability falls to 1.5%
The tracked probability fell to 1.5%, down 47.9 percentage points from 49.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 7°C on October 17? — probability rises to 93.5%
The tracked probability rose to 93.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 88% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Munich on October 17?
- Surge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability rises to 52.5%
The tracked probability rose to 52.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 69.5%
The tracked probability fell to 69.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 72.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring RBs
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 13.8 percentage points from 17.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.1%
The tracked probability rose to 47.1%, up 7.8 percentage points from 39.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 29.8 percentage points from 33.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 5.4 percentage points from 8.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 13.2 percentage points from 16.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Connor Bedard record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability falls to 42%
The tracked probability fell to 42%, down 31.0 percentage points from 73% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? — probability falls to 89.45%
The tracked probability fell to 89.45%, down 8.9 percentage points from 98.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 13.3 percentage points from 16.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 42.55%
The tracked probability rose to 42.55%, up 8.8 percentage points from 33.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.35B? — probability falls to 25%
The tracked probability fell to 25%, down 3.0 percentage points from 28% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above __?
- Surge
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? — probability rises to 84.5%
The tracked probability rose to 84.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 80% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?
- Plunge
Will Karmine Corp Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final? — probability falls to 5.15%
The tracked probability fell to 5.15%, down 9.4 percentage points from 14.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Worlds 2026: Team to Make Grand Finals
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.55%
The tracked probability fell to 38.55%, down 10.2 percentage points from 48.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 40.85%
The tracked probability fell to 40.85%, down 8.8 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 43.5%
The tracked probability fell to 43.5%, down 11.5 percentage points from 55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards