Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.15%
The tracked probability fell to 12.15%, down 8.8 percentage points from 20.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 47.55%
The tracked probability rose to 47.55%, up 44.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 5.05%
The tracked probability fell to 5.05%, down 22.0 percentage points from 27.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 23.6 percentage points from 27.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.95%
The tracked probability rose to 16.95%, up 14.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.55%
The tracked probability rose to 47.55%, up 40.0 percentage points from 7.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 20.95%
The tracked probability fell to 20.95%, down 5.0 percentage points from 25.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50.2%
The tracked probability rose to 50.2%, up 47.2 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.65%
The tracked probability fell to 12.65%, down 12.4 percentage points from 25.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 47.1 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 23.3%
The tracked probability fell to 23.3%, down 22.1 percentage points from 45.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 22.95%
The tracked probability fell to 22.95%, down 22.4 percentage points from 45.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on October 19? — probability falls to 81.5%
The tracked probability fell to 81.5%, down 12.0 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Wellington on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Caleb Williams have 3,500+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 60.5%
The tracked probability fell to 60.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from 67% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 3,500+ Passing Yards
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 46.4 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 27.95%
The tracked probability fell to 27.95%, down 22.3 percentage points from 50.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.65%
The tracked probability rose to 49.65%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 22.8%
The tracked probability rose to 22.8%, up 19.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 9.0 percentage points from 50.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 47.1 percentage points from 2.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026? — probability rises to 83.5%
The tracked probability rose to 83.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 79.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.55%
The tracked probability fell to 35.55%, down 5.1 percentage points from 40.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38%
The tracked probability fell to 38%, down 5.1 percentage points from 43.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability rises to 24%
The tracked probability rose to 24%, up 11.0 percentage points from 13% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Surge
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 8? — probability rises to 94.75%
The tracked probability rose to 94.75%, up 3.0 percentage points from 91.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 44.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.3%
The tracked probability fell to 40.3%, down 5.0 percentage points from 45.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.65%
The tracked probability fell to 37.65%, down 5.0 percentage points from 42.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.6%
The tracked probability fell to 12.6%, down 11.9 percentage points from 24.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.5%
The tracked probability fell to 41.5%, down 5.1 percentage points from 46.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability falls to 69.5%
The tracked probability fell to 69.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 72.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability falls to 59.85%
The tracked probability fell to 59.85%, down 3.3 percentage points from 63.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy… — probability falls to 34.5%
The tracked probability fell to 34.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 37.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability rises to 66.65%
The tracked probability rose to 66.65%, up 4.5 percentage points from 62.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on October 19? — probability falls to 72.5%
The tracked probability fell to 72.5%, down 19.5 percentage points from 92% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Wuhan on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 20.9%
The tracked probability fell to 20.9%, down 5.0 percentage points from 25.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 25.75%
The tracked probability rose to 25.75%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.9%
The tracked probability rose to 24.9%, up 21.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.15%
The tracked probability rose to 25.15%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 27.15%
The tracked probability rose to 27.15%, up 23.1 percentage points from 4.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 7.55%
The tracked probability fell to 7.55%, down 4.8 percentage points from 12.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability rises to 53%
The tracked probability rose to 53%, up 17.0 percentage points from 36% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 5.2%
The tracked probability fell to 5.2%, down 5.1 percentage points from 10.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.05%
The tracked probability rose to 45.05%, up 42.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 43.25%
The tracked probability fell to 43.25%, down 4.2 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.85%
The tracked probability rose to 45.85%, up 41.6 percentage points from 4.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability falls to 33.9%
The tracked probability fell to 33.9%, down 14.6 percentage points from 48.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.55%
The tracked probability rose to 46.55%, up 40.1 percentage points from 6.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader