Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.05%
The tracked probability rose to 45.05%, up 40.9 percentage points from 4.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.65%
The tracked probability fell to 38.65%, down 7.9 percentage points from 46.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 23.9%
The tracked probability rose to 23.9%, up 20.3 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Mark Stone record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 71.5%
The tracked probability rose to 71.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 67% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Surge
Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 74.5%
The tracked probability rose to 74.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 71.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Juwan Johnson 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 28.55%
The tracked probability rose to 28.55%, up 11.7 percentage points from 16.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.95%
The tracked probability fell to 38.95%, down 7.9 percentage points from 46.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $204 in October? — probability rises to 56.5%
The tracked probability rose to 56.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 52.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 19? — probability falls to 91.9%
The tracked probability fell to 91.9%, down 4.3 percentage points from 96.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 19?
- Surge
Will Jonathon Brooks finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.8%
The tracked probability rose to 47.8%, up 3.3 percentage points from 44.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.1%
The tracked probability fell to 38.1%, down 6.9 percentage points from 44.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 66%
The tracked probability rose to 66%, up 3.5 percentage points from 62.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.45%
The tracked probability rose to 45.45%, up 41.4 percentage points from 4.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21? — probability rises to 65.55%
The tracked probability rose to 65.55%, up 5.6 percentage points from 59.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 21?
- Surge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.05%
The tracked probability rose to 47.05%, up 44.2 percentage points from 2.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 55.3%
The tracked probability fell to 55.3%, down 4.5 percentage points from 59.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 19? — probability rises to 96.65%
The tracked probability rose to 96.65%, up 4.1 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.55%
The tracked probability fell to 34.55%, down 7.7 percentage points from 42.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.85%
The tracked probability fell to 39.85%, down 7.8 percentage points from 47.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42.55%
The tracked probability fell to 42.55%, down 7.1 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 33.6%
The tracked probability rose to 33.6%, up 9.5 percentage points from 24.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Chase Brown finish as a top-12 FLEX in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 68%
The tracked probability rose to 68%, up 5.0 percentage points from 63% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring FLEX
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Istanbul be 4°C or below on October 20? — probability falls to 57.7%
The tracked probability fell to 57.7%, down 4.5 percentage points from 62.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Istanbul on October 20?
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 63.5%
The tracked probability rose to 63.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 60.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.65%
The tracked probability rose to 49.65%, up 42.6 percentage points from 7.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.15%
The tracked probability rose to 47.15%, up 43.1 percentage points from 4.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.3%
The tracked probability rose to 49.3%, up 46.3 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 42.4 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $132 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 12.5%
The tracked probability rose to 12.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 75.2%
The tracked probability rose to 75.2%, up 4.8 percentage points from 70.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 46.8 percentage points from 2.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $178 in October? — probability rises to 52.4%
The tracked probability rose to 52.4%, up 4.4 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 20? — probability rises to 96.35%
The tracked probability rose to 96.35%, up 40.8 percentage points from 55.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 20?
- Plunge
Will Mark Stone record 100+ points? — probability falls to 54.05%
The tracked probability fell to 54.05%, down 31.7 percentage points from 85.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 2.65%
The tracked probability fell to 2.65%, down 20.1 percentage points from 22.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.7%
The tracked probability rose to 49.7%, up 36.0 percentage points from 13.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 22.75%
The tracked probability rose to 22.75%, up 19.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
South Alabama vs. Marshall: O/U 47.5 — probability falls to 8%
The tracked probability fell to 8%, down 27.5 percentage points from 35.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: South Alabama vs. Marshall
- Surge
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-10-20? — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 20.5 percentage points from 79.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Boca Juniors
- Plunge
South Alabama Team Total: O/U 20.5 — probability falls to 16.5%
The tracked probability fell to 16.5%, down 16.0 percentage points from 32.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: South Alabama vs. Marshall
- Plunge
South Alabama vs. Marshall: O/U 55.5 — probability falls to 2.2%
The tracked probability fell to 2.2%, down 5.8 percentage points from 7.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: South Alabama vs. Marshall
- Plunge
South Alabama vs. Marshall: O/U 43.5 — probability falls to 11.5%
The tracked probability fell to 11.5%, down 18.5 percentage points from 30% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: South Alabama vs. Marshall
- Plunge
South Alabama vs. Marshall: O/U 49.5 — probability falls to 6%
The tracked probability fell to 6%, down 7.5 percentage points from 13.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: South Alabama vs. Marshall
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader