Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026? — probability falls to 78.5%
The tracked probability fell to 78.5%, down 8.5 percentage points from 87% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 34.3%
The tracked probability rose to 34.3%, up 8.9 percentage points from 25.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.95%
The tracked probability fell to 38.95%, down 8.9 percentage points from 47.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability falls to 52.5%
The tracked probability fell to 52.5%, down 8.5 percentage points from 61% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.9%
The tracked probability rose to 24.9%, up 12.4 percentage points from 12.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability falls to 36.5%
The tracked probability fell to 36.5%, down 11.0 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.15%
The tracked probability rose to 45.15%, up 37.7 percentage points from 7.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability rises to 86%
The tracked probability rose to 86%, up 10.5 percentage points from 75.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 29.15%
The tracked probability fell to 29.15%, down 8.1 percentage points from 37.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.7%
The tracked probability rose to 16.7%, up 6.6 percentage points from 10.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $188 in October? — probability falls to 9.5%
The tracked probability fell to 9.5%, down 12.0 percentage points from 21.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.65%
The tracked probability fell to 32.65%, down 9.3 percentage points from 41.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 16.8%
The tracked probability fell to 16.8%, down 9.7 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 80.35%
The tracked probability fell to 80.35%, down 3.5 percentage points from 83.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.35%
The tracked probability fell to 36.35%, down 8.4 percentage points from 44.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 9.0 percentage points from 40% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35%
The tracked probability fell to 35%, down 8.4 percentage points from 43.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 55.5%
The tracked probability rose to 55.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring RBs
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 44.45%
The tracked probability rose to 44.45%, up 38.5 percentage points from 6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 19.85%
The tracked probability fell to 19.85%, down 8.4 percentage points from 28.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 19.65%
The tracked probability fell to 19.65%, down 8.4 percentage points from 28.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability falls to 4%
The tracked probability fell to 4%, down 35.1 percentage points from 39.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50.15%
The tracked probability rose to 50.15%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.7%
The tracked probability fell to 35.7%, down 5.4 percentage points from 41.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 22.5%
The tracked probability rose to 22.5%, up 19.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $178 in October? — probability rises to 39.15%
The tracked probability rose to 39.15%, up 21.4 percentage points from 17.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $188 in October? — probability rises to 21.5%
The tracked probability rose to 21.5%, up 14.5 percentage points from 7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 69%
The tracked probability rose to 69%, up 9.0 percentage points from 60% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 29.5%
The tracked probability rose to 29.5%, up 13.5 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability rises to 61%
The tracked probability rose to 61%, up 11.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8.85%
The tracked probability fell to 8.85%, down 6.8 percentage points from 15.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Twice release a song in 2026? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 4.7 percentage points from 45.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which KPop groups will release songs in 2026?
- Plunge
Will Perpl launch a token by December 31, 2027? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 3.0 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Perpl launch a token by ___?
- Surge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability rises to 38%
The tracked probability rose to 38%, up 7.0 percentage points from 31% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.25%
The tracked probability fell to 37.25%, down 6.3 percentage points from 43.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Elias Pettersson record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 25.5%
The tracked probability rose to 25.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 22% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.5%
The tracked probability fell to 12.5%, down 12.4 percentage points from 24.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31? — probability rises to 56%
The tracked probability rose to 56%, up 9.0 percentage points from 47% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $170 in October? — probability rises to 43.5%
The tracked probability rose to 43.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 39% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 68.45%
The tracked probability rose to 68.45%, up 7.5 percentage points from 61% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 25.4%
The tracked probability rose to 25.4%, up 21.8 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 43.4%
The tracked probability fell to 43.4%, down 4.5 percentage points from 47.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Michal Sadílek record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? — probability rises to 8.05%
The tracked probability rose to 8.05%, up 5.2 percentage points from 2.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Most Assists 2026-27
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 6.75%
The tracked probability fell to 6.75%, down 5.8 percentage points from 12.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 6%
The tracked probability fell to 6%, down 5.8 percentage points from 11.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 83.9%
The tracked probability rose to 83.9%, up 3.8 percentage points from 80.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 44.75%
The tracked probability rose to 44.75%, up 40.8 percentage points from 3.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 26.5%
The tracked probability rose to 26.5%, up 9.8 percentage points from 16.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 7.45%
The tracked probability fell to 7.45%, down 5.5 percentage points from 12.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader