Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Nolan McLean win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 31%
The tracked probability rose to 31%, up 4.0 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 46.8 percentage points from 50.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor: O/U 8.5 — probability rises to 39.1%
The tracked probability rose to 39.1%, up 38.6 percentage points from 0.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor - More Markets
- Surge
Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor: O/U 6.5 — probability rises to 12.35%
The tracked probability rose to 12.35%, up 11.4 percentage points from 0.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor - More Markets
- Surge
SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on October 19? — probability rises to 87.5%
The tracked probability rose to 87.5%, up 12.0 percentage points from 75.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on October 19?
- Plunge
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 19? — probability falls to 89.5%
The tracked probability fell to 89.5%, down 5.5 percentage points from 95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 on October 19? — probability falls to 55.65%
The tracked probability fell to 55.65%, down 40.8 percentage points from 96.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Tesla (TSLA) closes above ___ on October 19?
- Surge
Spread: FK Tukums 2000/TSS (-3.5) — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 49.5 percentage points from 0.5% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: FC RFS vs. FK Tukums 2000/TSS - More Markets
- Plunge
Spread: El Mokawloon El Arab SC (-3.5) — probability falls to 1.5%
The tracked probability fell to 1.5%, down 44.9 percentage points from 46.4% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Sharkia ENPPI vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 24.1 percentage points from 27.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 22.7 percentage points from 27.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Noah Fant finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 49.3%
The tracked probability rose to 49.3%, up 44.4 percentage points from 4.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 — probability rises to 34%
The tracked probability rose to 34%, up 4.0 percentage points from 30% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club - More Markets
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 49.15%
The tracked probability rose to 49.15%, up 8.1 percentage points from 41.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.4 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.65%
The tracked probability rose to 49.65%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Michal Sadílek record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? — probability falls to 2.9%
The tracked probability fell to 2.9%, down 4.8 percentage points from 7.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Most Assists 2026-27
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 26.55%
The tracked probability rose to 26.55%, up 21.5 percentage points from 5.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22.65%
The tracked probability fell to 22.65%, down 9.5 percentage points from 32.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.8 percentage points from 24.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 47.3 percentage points from 50.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will a transfer restriction on Manchester City be applied by the 2027 summer transfer window? — probability falls to 46.55%
The tracked probability fell to 46.55%, down 41.4 percentage points from 88% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Man City to face transfer restriction by 2027 summer transfer window?
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.9%
The tracked probability rose to 24.9%, up 12.3 percentage points from 12.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Mark Stone record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 3.0 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Surge
Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 97.6%
The tracked probability rose to 97.6%, up 22.6 percentage points from 75.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Curfew in a major French city by...?
- Plunge
SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on October 19? — probability falls to 75.5%
The tracked probability fell to 75.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 80.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on October 19?
- Surge
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 19? — probability rises to 98.15%
The tracked probability rose to 98.15%, up 3.7 percentage points from 94.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 19?
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 28.5%
The tracked probability rose to 28.5%, up 17.5 percentage points from 10.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 22.3 percentage points from 25.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability falls to 62.45%
The tracked probability fell to 62.45%, down 5.5 percentage points from 68% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.8%
The tracked probability fell to 38.8%, down 9.6 percentage points from 48.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 30.05%
The tracked probability rose to 30.05%, up 19.9 percentage points from 10.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.5 percentage points from 25.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Beitar Jerusalem FC vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv FC: Beitar Jerusalem FC O/U 4.5 — probability rises to 24.5%
The tracked probability rose to 24.5%, up 23.0 percentage points from 1.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Beitar Jerusalem FC vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability falls to 18.5%
The tracked probability fell to 18.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 24.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Plunge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 57.9%
The tracked probability fell to 57.9%, down 16.2 percentage points from 74.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.55%
The tracked probability fell to 38.55%, down 7.6 percentage points from 46.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31? — probability rises to 62%
The tracked probability rose to 62%, up 5.0 percentage points from 57% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.75%
The tracked probability fell to 40.75%, down 7.5 percentage points from 48.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.1%
The tracked probability fell to 40.1%, down 7.6 percentage points from 47.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability rises to 54%
The tracked probability rose to 54%, up 4.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Plunge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 68.5%
The tracked probability fell to 68.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from 74.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.6%
The tracked probability fell to 36.6%, down 8.7 percentage points from 45.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 21.4 percentage points from 24.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.85%
The tracked probability rose to 47.85%, up 41.4 percentage points from 6.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.6%
The tracked probability fell to 30.6%, down 8.7 percentage points from 39.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.9 percentage points from 24.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader