Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 24.1 percentage points from 27.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026? — probability rises to 86.5%
The tracked probability rose to 86.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 83.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 29.8%
The tracked probability fell to 29.8%, down 6.8 percentage points from 36.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 23.2%
The tracked probability rose to 23.2%, up 20.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.55%
The tracked probability fell to 27.55%, down 6.9 percentage points from 34.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.05%
The tracked probability fell to 30.05%, down 6.8 percentage points from 36.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 23.7 percentage points from 27.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.55%
The tracked probability fell to 39.55%, down 6.8 percentage points from 46.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42.45%
The tracked probability fell to 42.45%, down 6.7 percentage points from 49.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Next [link omitted] GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 43%
The tracked probability rose to 43%, up 5.0 percentage points from 38% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 46.5 percentage points from 50.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21? — probability rises to 27.2%
The tracked probability rose to 27.2%, up 3.4 percentage points from 23.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 21?
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.65%
The tracked probability fell to 3.65%, down 41.9 percentage points from 45.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Gavin Williams lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in strikeouts? — probability falls to 35.5%
The tracked probability fell to 35.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB Postseason: Strikeout Leader
- Surge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 74.6%
The tracked probability rose to 74.6%, up 9.3 percentage points from 65.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Mark Stone record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability falls to 63%
The tracked probability fell to 63%, down 19.0 percentage points from 82% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.15%
The tracked probability fell to 35.15%, down 6.8 percentage points from 41.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $188 in October? — probability rises to 17.5%
The tracked probability rose to 17.5%, up 8.5 percentage points from 9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $178 in October? — probability rises to 50.8%
The tracked probability rose to 50.8%, up 16.3 percentage points from 34.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.5%
The tracked probability fell to 40.5%, down 7.4 percentage points from 47.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.65%
The tracked probability fell to 34.65%, down 7.8 percentage points from 42.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 75.8%
The tracked probability rose to 75.8%, up 5.1 percentage points from 70.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Surge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 68.5%
The tracked probability rose to 68.5%, up 10.5 percentage points from 58% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.2%
The tracked probability fell to 37.2%, down 7.8 percentage points from 45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 88.5%
The tracked probability rose to 88.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 83% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability falls to 13%
The tracked probability fell to 13%, down 11.0 percentage points from 24% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.75%
The tracked probability fell to 36.75%, down 7.3 percentage points from 44.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 31.45%
The tracked probability rose to 31.45%, up 15.5 percentage points from 15.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.7%
The tracked probability fell to 3.7%, down 31.2 percentage points from 34.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 29.55%
The tracked probability fell to 29.55%, down 6.7 percentage points from 36.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 20? — probability falls to 54.3%
The tracked probability fell to 54.3%, down 42.1 percentage points from 96.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 20?
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 16.8%
The tracked probability fell to 16.8%, down 11.7 percentage points from 28.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 55.5%
The tracked probability fell to 55.5%, down 10.5 percentage points from 66% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 37.5%
The tracked probability fell to 37.5%, down 9.0 percentage points from 46.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 80.95%
The tracked probability rose to 80.95%, up 5.8 percentage points from 75.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 87.4%
The tracked probability fell to 87.4%, down 5.7 percentage points from 93.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 50.15%
The tracked probability rose to 50.15%, up 47.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 22.4 percentage points from 25.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 50.55%
The tracked probability rose to 50.55%, up 47.6 percentage points from 2.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 42.4 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 45%
The tracked probability rose to 45%, up 41.6 percentage points from 3.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Sporting Cristal be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 2.55%
The tracked probability fell to 2.55%, down 22.8 percentage points from 25.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Hurricanes vs. Canucks: O/U 7.5 — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 12.0 percentage points from 88% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Hurricanes vs. Canucks
- Surge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 27.05%
The tracked probability rose to 27.05%, up 24.5 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.55%
The tracked probability fell to 36.55%, down 5.6 percentage points from 42.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.5 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.45%
The tracked probability fell to 34.45%, down 5.7 percentage points from 40.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader