By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final.
Leading outcome
4.9%
5%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 5.3%, down 4.6 percentage points from 9.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 10% → 5%
-4.6 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 9.9% to 5.3% (-4.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T15:51:45.778Z to 2026-10-20T16:30:36.464Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 9.9% → 5.3%
Probability moved from 9.9% to 5.3% (-4.6 percentage points). Observations were 38 minutes 51 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 15:51:45 UTC to 2026-10-20 16:30:36 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 1% to 6.1% (+5.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T10:01:34.905Z to 2026-10-19T10:15:56.628Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 6.05% to 1% (-5.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T03:00:30.978Z to 2026-10-19T03:30:58.318Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 0.25% to 6.05% (+5.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T02:47:02.810Z to 2026-10-19T03:00:30.978Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 6.05% to 0.25% (-5.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T22:31:28.518Z to 2026-10-18T22:47:47.662Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 0.95% to 6.05% (+5.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T22:16:38.857Z to 2026-10-18T22:31:28.518Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 6.1% to 0.25% (-5.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T10:30:54.974Z to 2026-10-18T10:47:18.464Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 1% to 6.1% (+5.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T10:15:54.192Z to 2026-10-18T10:30:54.974Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final.
Resolves No
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2027 UEFA Champions League final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the 2027 UEFA Champions League final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Source market
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Story so far
Recently updatedBBC reports: “Club Brugge's Nicolo Tresoldi scores a hat-trick as the Belgian side edge Inter Milan 4-3, extending Inter's Champions League losing run to four matches for the first time in their history.”
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
Living timeline · 13 significant updates
Will Club Brugge reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final? — probability falls to 5.3%