Megaquake by June 30?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
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- Current leader
- No 98%
- Leader 24h
- +0%
- 24h volume
- 1.3K
- Liquidity
- 6K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
98%
+0% 24h
Yes
2%
-0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Read the complete resolution rules
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Probability over time
Story so far
Still buildingNo is 98%. Track the 24-hour odds move, volume, resolution criteria, chart history, and sourced updates for Megaquake by June 30?.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
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The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
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