LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market refers to the LoL match between Ninjas in Pyjamas and Weibo Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for July 30 at 3:00AM ET.
PolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.
- Current leader
- Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor 50%
- Largest 24h move
- Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill +25%
- 24h volume
- 1.9M
- Liquidity
- 2.4M
Top candidates
15 outcomes
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor
50%
+22% 24h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon
50%
-15% 24h
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors
50%
+23% 24h
Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill
50%
+22% 24h
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill
50%
+25% 24h
Show all outcomes
Game 2: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor
50%
+22%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon
50%
-15%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors
50%
+23%
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill
50%
+22%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill
50%
+25%
Game 3: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor
50%
-2%
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon
50%
+10%
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors
50%
—
Game 3: Any Player Quadra Kill
50%
-3%
Game 3: Any Player Penta Kill
50%
-2%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market refers to the LoL match between Ninjas in Pyjamas and Weibo Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for July 30 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas win the match against Weibo Gaming. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if Weibo Gaming win the match against Ninjas in Pyjamas.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
Read the complete resolution rules
If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from. However, if has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching.
Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition.
If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Living timeline · 6 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Limited confidenceNinjas in Pyjamas moved lower from 50.0% to 0.3% (-49.8 points) between 2026-07-29T08:00:10.952Z and 2026-07-30T08:00:10.952Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
The latest move is visible, but the public source trail is still thin.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Ninjas in Pyjamas moved lower from 50.0% to 0.3% (-49.8 points) between 2026-07-29T08:00:10.952Z and 2026-07-30T08:00:10.952Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Ninjas in Pyjamas" outcome in "First Blood in Game 1?" made a sharp move from 50.0% to 0.3% between 2026-07-29T08:00:10.952Z and 2026-07-30T08:00:10.952Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -49.8 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
Keep exploring
Recent market explanations
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B
Fed holds rates steady, and yes odds for a 2026 hike fall 8 points over 24 hours
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Israel-Iran ceasefire-through-Aug. 9 contract slips 4.5 points over 24 hours
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Elon Musk # tweets July 24 - July 31, 2026?