This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title.
Leading outcome
44.5%
45%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 44.5%, down 10.0 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 55% → 45%
-10.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 54.5% to 44.5% (-10 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T03:31:18.242Z to 2026-10-30T03:46:24.688Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 54.5% → 44.5%
Probability moved from 54.5% to 44.5% (-10 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 6 seconds apart: 2026-10-30 03:31:18 UTC to 2026-10-30 03:46:24 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 64.5% to 54.5% (-10 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T03:18:45.341Z to 2026-10-30T03:31:18.242Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 71% to 64.5% (-6.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T03:01:31.487Z to 2026-10-30T03:18:45.341Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 66.5% to 71% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T02:46:36.296Z to 2026-10-30T03:01:31.487Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 82.5% to 67.5% (-15 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T02:15:54.828Z to 2026-10-30T02:30:12.250Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 90% to 84% (-6 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T01:31:50.829Z to 2026-10-30T02:03:49.524Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 68.5% to 90% (+21.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T01:04:36.222Z to 2026-10-30T01:31:50.829Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 77% to 68.5% (-8.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T00:49:15.817Z to 2026-10-30T01:04:36.222Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT Low prices available at, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance XRP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.
Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.