This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal.
Leading outcome
4.8%
5%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 4.8%, down 9.9 percentage points from 14.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 15% → 5%
-9.9 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 14.75% to 4.8% (-9.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z to 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 14.75% → 4.8%
Probability moved from 14.75% to 4.8% (-9.95 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 30.2% to 13.95% (-16.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T20:16:53.485Z to 2026-10-19T20:32:04.311Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 17.8% to 30.05% (+12.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T07:02:22.876Z to 2026-10-19T07:17:00.999Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 30.05% to 17.95% (-12.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T06:30:12.358Z to 2026-10-19T06:47:20.027Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 17.8% to 32.55% (+14.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T05:30:12.673Z to 2026-10-19T05:47:09.235Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 32.2% to 17.75% (-14.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T05:02:28.770Z to 2026-10-19T05:18:01.234Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 17.75% to 32.2% (+14.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T04:45:52.933Z to 2026-10-19T05:02:28.770Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 29.85% to 17.85% (-12 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T04:15:21.343Z to 2026-10-19T04:30:04.529Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves No
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Europa League quarterfinal (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal. If the 2027 UEFA Europa League is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Torreense reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal? — probability falls to 4.8%