Golden Joystick Awards presents its "Ultimate Game of the Year" award annually, honoring the best overall game across all platforms as voted by the public.
Leading outcome
0.5%
1%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0.6%, down 3.4 percentage points from 3.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 4% → 1%
-3.4 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 3.95% to 0.6% (-3.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T01:47:48.548Z to 2026-10-20T02:02:01.105Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 3.95% → 0.6%
Probability moved from 3.95% to 0.6% (-3.35 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 13 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 01:47:48 UTC to 2026-10-20 02:02:01 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 9.4% to 3.2% (-6.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T00:00:37.301Z to 2026-10-20T00:17:20.899Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 9.4% (+6.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T23:45:56.897Z to 2026-10-20T00:00:37.301Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 10.9% to 3% (-7.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T23:30:46.077Z to 2026-10-19T23:45:56.897Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 16.5% to 3% (-13.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T20:32:04.311Z to 2026-10-19T20:46:39.222Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 4% to 16.5% (+12.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T20:16:53.485Z to 2026-10-19T20:32:04.311Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 9.3% to 4.45% (-4.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T16:01:43.900Z to 2026-10-19T16:15:52.951Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 9.3% (+6.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T15:45:53.947Z to 2026-10-19T16:01:43.900Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves No
If a game is not officially shortlisted for the 2026 Golden Joystick Award for Ultimate Game of the Year when the shortlist is announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
Golden Joystick Awards presents its "Ultimate Game of the Year" award annually, honoring the best overall game across all platforms as voted by the public. The 2026 Golden Joystick Awards are scheduled to be presented on November 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video game that wins the 2026 Golden Joystick Award for Ultimate Game of the Year.
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Golden Joystick Awards, including data from their website (e.g., and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.