This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift has a monthly listeners of greater than or equal to the specified figure according to Spotify at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Leading outcome
2.9%
3%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 10.85%, down 10.9 percentage points from 21.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 22% → 11%
-10.9 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 21.75% to 10.85% (-10.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T13:02:57.271Z to 2026-10-17T13:16:27.752Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 21.75% → 10.85%
Probability moved from 21.75% to 10.85% (-10.9 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 30 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 13:02:57 UTC to 2026-10-17 13:16:27 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 37.55% to 18.35% (-19.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T13:04:27.084Z to 2026-10-16T13:22:42.907Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 41.85% to 36.6% (-5.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T01:00:08.613Z to 2026-10-16T01:17:37.565Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 46.95% to 41.85% (-5.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T00:45:28.055Z to 2026-10-16T01:00:08.613Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 28.95% to 41.8% (+12.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-15T23:47:42.183Z to 2026-10-16T00:01:21.535Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 21.9% to 28.95% (+7.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-15T23:31:42.664Z to 2026-10-15T23:47:42.183Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 41.25% to 21.9% (-19.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-15T23:15:15.172Z to 2026-10-15T23:31:42.664Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 60.3% to 41.25% (-19.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-15T23:00:14.528Z to 2026-10-15T23:15:15.172Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift has a monthly listeners of greater than or equal to the specified figure according to Spotify at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The monthly listener count is listed on each artist's public Spotify profile. Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not count towards the specified artist's total. The resolution source for this market will be Spotify. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.