This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player departs the listed team's active roster on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Leading outcome
14%
14%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 13.95%, up 11.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 3% → 14%
+10.9 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 13.95% (+10.95 percentage points), from 2026-11-15T00:34:03.595Z to 2026-11-15T00:50:17.952Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 3% → 13.95%
Probability moved from 3% to 13.95% (+10.95 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 14 seconds apart: 2026-11-15 00:34:03 UTC to 2026-11-15 00:50:17 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 13.95% to 3% (-10.95 percentage points), from 2026-11-15T00:19:43.490Z to 2026-11-15T00:34:03.595Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 13.95% (+10.95 percentage points), from 2026-11-14T21:50:05.245Z to 2026-11-14T22:08:54.009Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 13.95% to 3% (-10.95 percentage points), from 2026-11-14T21:32:34.188Z to 2026-11-14T21:50:05.245Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3% to 13.95% (+10.95 percentage points), from 2026-11-14T20:33:02.444Z to 2026-11-14T20:50:19.094Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 13.95% to 3% (-10.95 percentage points), from 2026-11-14T20:19:51.835Z to 2026-11-14T20:33:02.444Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 4.2% to 14% (+9.8 percentage points), from 2026-11-14T17:48:02.156Z to 2026-11-14T18:05:15.278Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 14% to 4.2% (-9.8 percentage points), from 2026-11-14T17:34:19.374Z to 2026-11-14T17:48:02.156Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player departs the listed team's active roster on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
For the purpose of this market, the listed player is considered to have "left" if they are officially removed from the listed team's active roster — including a transfer to another team, release, benching to inactive/reserve, loan to another team, retirement, or any other departure from the active lineup — as reflected on the team's Liquipedia page (.
The player being a stand-in for another team while still rostered does not by itself count. The change must occur on or before the deadline and be reflected in the resolution source. Once the departure appears in the resolution source, it must remain in effect for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid. This 48-hour period may finish after the deadline, so long as the departure itself occurred on or before the deadline.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If the change is reverted before 48 hours have elapsed, it will not count toward resolution. A name change or alias referring to the same player on the same team does not count as leaving. Temporary absence for a single match (with the player remaining on the roster) does not count.
If the listed team disbands, or the listed player and the team part ways because the roster is dissolved, this will count as the player leaving and resolve "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.