This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes in the top 8 of the final league phase standings of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
Leading outcome
6.7%
7%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 3.4%, down 6.8 percentage points from 10.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 10% → 3%
-6.8 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 10.25% to 3.4% (-6.85 percentage points), from 2026-11-01T14:02:28.911Z to 2026-11-01T14:18:51.399Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 10.25% → 3.4%
Probability moved from 10.25% to 3.4% (-6.85 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 22 seconds apart: 2026-11-01 14:02:28 UTC to 2026-11-01 14:18:51 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.4% to 10.25% (+6.85 percentage points), from 2026-11-01T13:54:10.329Z to 2026-11-01T14:02:28.911Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 30.55% to 5.25% (-25.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-31T15:03:01.171Z to 2026-10-31T15:19:39.187Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 5.9% to 30.55% (+24.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-31T14:53:56.610Z to 2026-10-31T15:03:01.171Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 11.95% to 5.3% (-6.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T18:32:44.508Z to 2026-10-30T18:53:31.498Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 28.2% to 11.95% (-16.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T18:05:43.554Z to 2026-10-30T18:20:21.766Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 46.05% to 28.2% (-17.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T17:49:34.485Z to 2026-10-30T18:05:43.554Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 15.6% to 46.05% (+30.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T17:33:13.713Z to 2026-10-30T17:49:34.485Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes in the top 8 of the final league phase standings of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered. If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish in the top 8 of the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from doing so), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or is not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If a listed club does not participate in, withdraws from, or is expelled from the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase, its market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.