This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is confirmed to be included as a playable track on any in-game radio station within Grand Theft Auto VI's base game, as of its initial release on November 19, 2026.
Leading outcome
53%
53%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 51%, down 10.0 percentage points from 61% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 61% → 51%
-10.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 61% to 51% (-10 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T02:46:22.190Z to 2026-10-21T03:02:30.010Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 61% → 51%
Probability moved from 61% to 51% (-10 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 8 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 02:46:22 UTC to 2026-10-21 03:02:30 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 54.5% to 62.5% (+8 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T23:46:35.952Z to 2026-10-21T00:01:44.863Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 65% to 54.5% (-10.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T23:30:11.433Z to 2026-10-20T23:46:35.952Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 56.5% to 65% (+8.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T23:17:47.845Z to 2026-10-20T23:30:11.433Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 51.5% to 56.5% (+5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T23:02:19.474Z to 2026-10-20T23:17:47.845Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 48% to 53.5% (+5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:31:56.258Z to 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 51% to 48% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:17:53.815Z to 2026-10-20T17:31:56.258Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 48% to 51% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T14:17:37.347Z to 2026-10-20T14:30:30.463Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is confirmed to be included as a playable track on any in-game radio station within Grand Theft Auto VI's base game, as of its initial release on November 19, 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A song counts as included if it can be heard by tuning into any radio station in the base game at launch.
Music heard on the title screen or as background/ambient music during gameplay (i.e. not selectable via an in-game radio station) does not count. Songs added later via post-launch updates, DLC, or radio station updates will not count toward resolution. If GTA VI fails to release by December 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source of this market will be Rockstar Games' official announcements regarding GTA VI's in-game radio stations, in-game verification after release, or reliable reporting from credible gaming outlets confirming the in-game radio station tracklists.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.