This market will resolve to the next team OXY officially joins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Leading outcome
55.5%
56%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 55.55%, down 12.3 percentage points from 67.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 68% → 56%
-12.3 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 67.8% to 55.55% (-12.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z to 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 67.8% → 55.55%
Probability moved from 67.8% to 55.55% (-12.25 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 58.8% to 67.8% (+9 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z to 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 67.75% to 58.8% (-8.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z to 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 61% to 67.8% (+6.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T03:32:02.969Z to 2026-10-21T03:47:54.820Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 67.7% to 61% (-6.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T03:17:32.619Z to 2026-10-21T03:32:02.969Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 76.9% to 68.05% (-8.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T01:45:36.198Z to 2026-10-21T02:00:28.960Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 87.4% to 77.2% (-10.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:31:56.258Z to 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 96.75% to 85% (-11.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T13:46:59.633Z to 2026-10-20T14:00:04.954Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the next team OXY officially joins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If OXY does not officially join a new team by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Cloud9". If OXY joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If OXY is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official signing announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Cloud9 and/or the acquiring team.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.