This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team achieves promotion from the Superettan (Sweden) to the Allsvenskan (Sweden) for the 2027 season at the conclusion of the current league season.
Leading outcome
79.5%
80%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 77.75%, up 3.7 percentage points from 74.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 74% → 78%
+3.7 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 74.05% to 77.75% (+3.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z to 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 74.05% → 77.75%
Probability moved from 74.05% to 77.75% (+3.7 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 25 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:50:25 UTC to 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 70.05% to 74.05% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z to 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 65.85% to 70.05% (+4.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:19:22.060Z to 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 57.55% to 65.85% (+8.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:47:59.199Z to 2026-10-21T06:19:22.060Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 52.75% to 57.55% (+4.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:30:29.244Z to 2026-10-21T05:47:59.199Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 85.2% to 52.75% (-32.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:17:25.794Z to 2026-10-21T05:30:29.244Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 80.3% to 85.2% (+4.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:02:32.123Z to 2026-10-21T05:17:25.794Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 75.8% to 80.3% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:47:12.589Z to 2026-10-21T05:02:32.123Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team achieves promotion from the Superettan (Sweden) to the Allsvenskan (Sweden) for the 2027 season at the conclusion of the current league season.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Official promotion is defined as a team clinching a place in the Allsvenskan (Sweden) for the 2027 season through their final standing in the Superettan (Sweden), via playoff victory, or by any other official league decision recognized by the Superettan (Sweden) and Allsvenskan (Sweden).
If the 2026 Superettan (Sweden) season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for promotion within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Superettan (Sweden) and Allsvenskan (Sweden). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.