This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Kansas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Leading outcome
84%
84%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 84%, down 6.5 percentage points from 90.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 91% → 84%
-6.5 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 90.5% to 84% (-6.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T02:46:23.927Z to 2026-11-04T03:04:52.526Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 90.5% → 84%
Probability moved from 90.5% to 84% (-6.5 percentage points). Observations were 18 minutes 29 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 02:46:23 UTC to 2026-11-04 03:04:52 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 81.5% to 90.5% (+9 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T02:22:58.958Z to 2026-11-04T02:46:23.927Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 88.5% to 80% (-8.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T01:47:51.542Z to 2026-11-04T02:02:34.098Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Kansas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.