This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Kansas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Current leader
90.5%
91%
1 outcome
Will Democrats sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 90.5%, up 9.0 percentage points from 81.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 82% → 91%
+9.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 80%, down 8.5 percentage points from 88.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 81.5% to 90.5% (+9 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T02:22:58.958Z to 2026-11-04T02:46:23.927Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 81.5% → 90.5%
Probability moved from 81.5% to 90.5% (+9 percentage points). Observations were 23 minutes 25 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 02:22:58 UTC to 2026-11-04 02:46:23 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 88.5% to 80% (-8.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T01:47:51.542Z to 2026-11-04T02:02:34.098Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Kansas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Will Democrats sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections? — probability rises to 90.5%
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