This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close.
Leading outcome
97.8%
98%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 97.9%, up 3.4 percentage points from 94.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 94% → 98%
+3.4 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 94.45% to 97.9% (+3.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T17:18:15.158Z to 2026-10-30T18:05:55.072Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 94.45% → 97.9%
Probability moved from 94.45% to 97.9% (+3.45 percentage points). Observations were 47 minutes 40 seconds apart: 2026-10-30 17:18:15 UTC to 2026-10-30 18:05:55 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 97.9%
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.