This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close.
Current leader
97.8%
98%
2 outcomes
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 97.9%, up 3.4 percentage points from 94.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 94% → 98%
+3.4 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 97.9%, up 3.4 percentage points from 94.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 94.45% to 97.9% (+3.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T17:18:15.158Z to 2026-10-30T18:05:55.072Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 94.45% → 97.9%
Probability moved from 94.45% to 97.9% (+3.45 percentage points). Observations were 47 minutes 40 seconds apart: 2026-10-30 17:18:15 UTC to 2026-10-30 18:05:55 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 97.9%
Keep exploring
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.