This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of October 19 2026, any 1-minute candle for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price.
Leading outcome
50.5%
51%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 50.5%, down 4.0 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 55% → 51%
-4.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 54.5% to 50.5% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z to 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 54.5% → 50.5%
Probability moved from 54.5% to 50.5% (-4 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 64% to 61% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T03:32:02.969Z to 2026-10-21T03:47:54.820Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 59.5% to 64.5% (+5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T03:02:30.010Z to 2026-10-21T03:17:32.619Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 61% to 58% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T01:45:36.198Z to 2026-10-21T02:00:28.960Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 56.5% to 61% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T01:16:29.459Z to 2026-10-21T01:45:36.198Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 54.5% to 58.5% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:15:37.453Z to 2026-10-21T00:33:00.333Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 59.5% to 55.5% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T23:46:35.952Z to 2026-10-21T00:01:44.863Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 62.5% to 59.5% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T22:15:54.260Z to 2026-10-20T22:30:39.856Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of October 19 2026, any 1-minute candle for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "High" and "Low" prices available at, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.