This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price.
Leading outcome
49.3%
49%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 5.7 percentage points from 44.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 44% → 50%
+5.7 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 44.25% to 49.95% (+5.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z to 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 44.25% → 49.95%
Probability moved from 44.25% to 49.95% (+5.7 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 57 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:32:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 06:50:25 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 6.3% to 44.25% (+37.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z to 2026-10-20T21:19:32.293Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 44.25% to 5.15% (-39.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T14:00:04.954Z to 2026-10-20T14:17:37.347Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 4% to 44.25% (+40.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T13:15:37.074Z to 2026-10-20T13:32:57.562Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 45.7% to 4% (-41.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T13:00:19.880Z to 2026-10-20T13:15:37.074Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 45.55% to 49.2% (+3.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T07:01:11.780Z to 2026-10-20T07:17:05.181Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 39.3% to 46.3% (+7 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:00:09.968Z to 2026-10-20T06:16:27.753Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 33% to 39.3% (+6.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T04:01:38.825Z to 2026-10-20T04:17:31.992Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.
Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) "High" and "Low" prices available at, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.