This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC.
Leading outcome
52.5%
53%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 52.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 55.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 56% → 53%
-3.0 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 55.5% to 52.5% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z to 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 55.5% → 52.5%
Probability moved from 55.5% to 52.5% (-3 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 49.4% to 53.4% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z to 2026-10-21T06:50:25.251Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 55.95% to 49.4% (-6.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T06:19:22.060Z to 2026-10-21T06:32:28.344Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 52.85% to 55.95% (+3.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:47:59.199Z to 2026-10-21T06:19:22.060Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 49% to 54.05% (+5.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:17:25.794Z to 2026-10-21T05:30:29.244Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 53.35% to 49% (-4.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:02:32.123Z to 2026-10-21T05:17:25.794Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 50.1% to 53.5% (+3.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:02:56.817Z to 2026-10-21T04:20:41.613Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 54.45% to 50.6% (-3.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T02:46:22.190Z to 2026-10-21T03:02:30.010Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required.
A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person.
Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (UTC) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident.
If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.