In the upcoming Serie A game between AC Milan and Bologna FC 1909, scheduled for October 28 at 1:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if AC Milan score 3 or more goals in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time).
Leading outcome
7.3%
7%
2 outcomes
Over
Under
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 7%, up 3.9 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Over: 3% → 7%
+3.9 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.15% to 7% (+3.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-27T18:34:37.795Z to 2026-10-27T21:23:34.801Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Over: 3.15% → 7%
Probability moved from 3.15% to 7% (+3.85 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 48 minutes 57 seconds apart: 2026-10-27 18:34:37 UTC to 2026-10-27 21:23:34 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 12.95% to 3.15% (-9.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-27T16:35:21.292Z to 2026-10-27T18:34:37.795Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 6.95% to 12.95% (+6 percentage points), from 2026-10-27T12:04:07.812Z to 2026-10-27T16:35:21.292Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.1% to 6.95% (+3.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-27T10:47:50.749Z to 2026-10-27T12:04:07.812Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
In the upcoming Serie A game between AC Milan and Bologna FC 1909, scheduled for October 28 at 1:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if AC Milan score 3 or more goals in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). If AC Milan score less than 3 goals in the first half, this market will resolve to "Under".
This market is based solely on AC Milan's first-half score, not the combined score of both teams. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).