This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time.
Leading outcome
81.5%
82%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 81.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 74% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 74% → 82%
+7.5 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 74% to 81.5% (+7.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T02:00:28.960Z to 2026-10-21T02:30:47.318Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 74% → 81.5%
Probability moved from 74% to 81.5% (+7.5 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 18 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 02:00:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 02:30:47 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 73% to 76% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T03:21:30.605Z to 2026-10-20T03:32:32.413Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 54% to 78% (+24 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T15:15:20.934Z to 2026-10-19T15:32:13.932Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 53.5% to 57.5% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T13:47:37.918Z to 2026-10-19T14:01:09.245Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 85.5% to 54% (-31.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T13:00:29.070Z to 2026-10-19T13:15:45.012Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 78% to 85% (+7 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T19:00:08.780Z to 2026-10-18T19:18:01.755Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 57% to 78% (+21 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T17:16:43.110Z to 2026-10-18T17:32:43.331Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 84.5% to 57% (-27.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T16:31:46.109Z to 2026-10-18T16:46:14.944Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time.
Resolves No
Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen.
An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify.
Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g.
MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action.
Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed.
Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action.
If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, the Houthis, and a consensus of credible reporting.