This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of passing touchdowns Jalen Hurts records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds 16.5.
Leading outcome
2.3%
2%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 4.85%, up 3.1 percentage points from 1.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 2% → 5%
+3.1 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 1.7% to 4.85% (+3.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:00:09.968Z to 2026-10-20T06:16:27.753Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 1.7% → 4.85%
Probability moved from 1.7% to 4.85% (+3.15 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 18 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 06:00:09 UTC to 2026-10-20 06:16:27 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 5.5% to 1.5% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T05:32:51.585Z to 2026-10-20T05:47:09.607Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 19.5% to 10.5% (-9 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T14:01:09.245Z to 2026-10-19T14:17:41.465Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 18% to 27% (+9 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T23:01:39.038Z to 2026-10-18T23:17:19.620Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 13.5% to 19% (+5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T22:16:38.857Z to 2026-10-18T22:31:28.518Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 22% to 15.5% (-6.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T16:15:48.319Z to 2026-10-18T16:31:46.109Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 13.5% to 22% (+8.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T16:01:46.960Z to 2026-10-18T16:15:48.319Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 20% to 13.5% (-6.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T15:31:01.052Z to 2026-10-18T15:45:28.392Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of passing touchdowns Jalen Hurts records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds 16.5.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Jalen Hurts does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many passing touchdowns Jalen Hurts recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.