This market will resolve to "Yes" if Buffalo, NY records any snowfall on any day between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM local time.
Leading outcome
49.8%
50%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 7.7 percentage points from 42.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 42% → 50%
+7.7 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 42.15% to 49.8% (+7.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-27T16:38:07.875Z to 2026-10-27T18:35:22.299Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 42.15% → 49.8%
Probability moved from 42.15% to 49.8% (+7.65 percentage points). Observations were 1 hour 57 minutes 14 seconds apart: 2026-10-27 16:38:07 UTC to 2026-10-27 18:35:22 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Buffalo, NY records any snowfall on any day between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM local time.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Snowfall for Buffalo, NY is measured only at station KBUF, which the National Weather Service reports as "BUFFALO NY" in its Daily Climate Report. Observations from any other station or location do not count. Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window.
This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window. The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York). Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one.
If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes".
This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period.
If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall. The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF.
That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at.