This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records any snowfall, including trace, between market creation and the listed deadline, 11:59 PM local time.
Current leader
49.8%
50%
1 outcome
Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by November 30?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 7.7 percentage points from 42.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 42% → 50%
+7.7 ppStory so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 42.15% to 49.8% (+7.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-27T16:38:07.875Z to 2026-10-27T18:35:22.299Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 42.15% → 49.8%
Probability moved from 42.15% to 49.8% (+7.65 percentage points). Observations were 1 hour 57 minutes 14 seconds apart: 2026-10-27 16:38:07 UTC to 2026-10-27 18:35:22 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records any snowfall, including trace, between market creation and the listed deadline, 11:59 PM local time.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The observation day is each station's National Weather Service climate day (midnight to midnight local time). Each market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as a report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as a report has been published for every day of its window.
Because the final climate report for a day is issued the following morning, each market carries a resolution date 3 days after its deadline as an outer limit for that publication lag, not a waiting period: October 31, 2026 (by November 3, 2026); November 15, 2026 (by November 18, 2026); November 30, 2026 (by December 3, 2026).
Each market's resolution source is that city's NWS Daily Climate Report, linked in that market's details. Those pages show the latest report only; past daily reports for every city are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by November 30? — probability rises to 49.8%
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